When we launched PowerUP In California in 2016, Tesla began taking off.  With its sleek design, cutting-edge technology, and eco-friendly appeal, it was poised to revolutionize the electric vehicle (EV) market.

Fast-forward to 2024, and Tesla is now one of the most popular car brands, if not in the world, then definitely in California. With millions of vehicles on the road and an ever-growing presence in the global automotive market, Tesla is a leader in the industry.

At the same time, adoption could be faster despite the buzz around hydrogen cars as a potential alternative to gasoline and battery-powered vehicles. 

In general, hydrogen makes the most sense to power heavy-use vehicles like taxis as the filling time is just 3-5 minutes, compared to 6-12 hours of charging time for a typical EV at home. 

But, looking at the data, could hydrogen-powered cars follow Tesla’s success story in the next 8 years? The starting point is similar.

There were roughly 11,000 Teslas in California in 2015. In 2023, there were roughly 20,000 of the most popular hydrogen models, Toyota Mirai.

For potential scale – already in 2020, California had approximately 209,000 Uber and Lyft drivers.

Roadmap for hydrogen cars to catch up:

Infrastructure Development: In 2016, one of the key drivers behind Tesla’s rapid growth was the development of its Supercharger network. For hydrogen cars, a similar leap in refueling infrastructure is critical. While hydrogen stations exist, they are limited in number, especially outside select regions. Widespread adoption would require massive investment in refueling infrastructure.

Cost and Range Improvements: In the early days, Tesla’s models were expensive, but economies of scale, improved battery technology, and production efficiency have drastically lowered prices. For hydrogen cars, we are working on breakthroughs in fuel cell technology to lower production costs, and better driving range per tank.

Government Incentives: Just like how California led the way in EV adoption with tax credits, carpool lane access, and other perks, the hydrogen industry could benefit from similar supportive policies and subsidies. Governments have a huge role to play in accelerating market uptake.

Public Perception and Awareness: One of Tesla’s biggest advantages was its brand – Tesla became synonymous with innovation and sustainability. If hydrogen cars can build a similar identity, especially with big-name automakers backing them, they could catch the public’s imagination.

Mass Market Appeal: The Tesla Model 3 proved that electric cars could be affordable, stylish, and practical for the masses. Hydrogen cars need to follow suit – more models, lower prices, and more variety to attract a broad customer base.

Roadmap

Looking for Elon?

Tesla had a visionary in Elon Musk, who brought technical expertise, bold ideas, and the ability to capture the public’s imagination.

The hydrogen industry would benefit from a similar figure — a leader who advances the technology and advocates for the infrastructure, policy changes, and public buy-in required for a massive shift in transportation.

What do you think? Could hydrogen cars be as ubiquitous as Teslas in 8 years?  And if so, what key ingredients would we need to make that happen?